Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Figures

The mean figure of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have warned that homicide data could fail to signal improved national security.

Notable Reduction in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September of last year. This information was provided by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded during these months is remarkably important,” the President said, explaining that in November the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Intense cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly militarised campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The central elements of the President's security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between government authorities.

Expert Caution and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that relying on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was misleading. This is especially true in light of the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not useful for gauging the context of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the desire to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it might hide periods when there were especially elevated numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily average makes surges of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet despite these actions, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to create a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” the analyst concluded.