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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the top if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.